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Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every BYU and Utah game against an FBS opponent this season.
It’s here — rivalry week, as No. 9 BYU and Utah get ready to clash at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
Saturday’s matchup features one team, the Cougars, trying to stay unbeaten and strengthen their case for College Football Playoff inclusion, against another team, the Utes, who are hoping to salvage a frustrating season by springing an upset.
How will the first game in this series in three years end up?
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game, and if things go even remotely close to how the simulation played out, this will be deemed an instant classic from one fanbase.
There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 12-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
CPU ratings have also been adjusted a bit from the standard to make pass defense more realistic — I adjusted the passing accuracy from 50 to 35, then adjusted pass defense ratings from 50 to 80.
Injuries and depth chart movement were also implemented.
Wide receiver Kody Epps and center Connor Pay are still out for BYU — Bruce Mitchell is at center again for the Cougars.
For Utah, there’s a big switch. Isaac Wilson and Brandon Rose split QB reps, and given that Rose was the one that spoke to the media on Tuesday and not Wilson, I inserted Rose as the starter.
With two weeks to prepare for the game and with time to heal up, I had Junior Tafuna and Keanu Tanuvasa both playing for the Utes at defensive tackle.
The uniforms both teams will be wearing were also implemented into the simulation, as best as I could.
BYU is wearing the royal rush uniform, with royal blue helmets, royal blue jerseys and royal blue pants.
Utah is going with an all-red look in its throwback uniforms — unfortunately, red wasn’t available on the Utes’ throwback helmets or pants in the video game, so for the simulation, their throwbacks include a white helmet, red jersey and white pants.
The actual score: BYU 37, UCF 24
College Football 25 simulation final score: UCF 31, BYU 24
My analysis: While the simulation was able to predict that both teams would score 24 or more points, it wasn’t too accurate beyond that.
The video game had UCF springing the upset, while in reality, the Cougars stayed unbeaten.
BYU also got off to a slow start in the simulation, though in the real game, the Cougars broke open a 17-0 first-half lead before maintaining at least a one score lead the rest of the way en route to the win.
The actual score: Houston 17, Utah 14
College Football 25 simulation final score: Houston 28, Utah 24
My analysis: The simulation was able to predict that Houston would knock off Utah, which happened in reality.
While the video game had the score a bit inflated from what really happened, both in the simulation and real life, the contest flipped on a Utah turnover.
In the simulation, it was a fumble that helped Houston rally from an early deficit, while in reality, it was a Rose interception that set up Houston kicking the game-winning field goal.
Final score: Utah 41, BYU 38
Key sequence: First of all, yes you read that final score right (we’ll explain how it got there, in all the wild details).
The game turned on a pair of back-to-back turnovers from BYU, after the Cougars had built a 31-10 lead early in the fourth quarter before giving up a long touchdown to Dorian Singer to make it a 14-point game.
The Cougars had a drive going following the Utah score, but Smith Snowden stepped in front of a Jake Retzlaff pass and returned it 56 yards for a pick-six with 6:24 to play. That made it a 31-24 game.
On the ensuing possession, Retzlaff was intercepted by Alaka’i Gilman on the first play of the drive, setting up an 11-yard Munir McClain touchdown three plays later to tie the game at 31-31 with 5:10 to play.
How the simulation transpired: Despite what the final score might indicate, the simulation started slow, like how the actual game could turn out.
Heading into halftime, the game was tied at 10-10, and the Utes briefly held a lead after a BYU turnover.
Both teams scored field goals on their opening drives — Will Ferrin hit a 36-yarder to open the scoring, while Utah countered with a 52-yard field goal from Cole Becker.
Midway through the second quarter, Darius Lassiter was stripped of the ball near midfield by Elijah Davis and Snowden recovered the fumble. That set up a 49-yard touchdown drive for Utah, before Luca Caldarella caught a 16-yard touchdown pass to make it 10-3 Utes.
BYU responded, though, as Lassiter caught a 53-yard pass to set the Cougars up inside the Utah red zone, and LJ Martin scored on a 5-yard run on fourth and 2 with 3:44 until halftime to make it a 10-10 contest.
BYU then took control in the third quarter, even after Utah took the opening drive of the third downfield before missing a 43-yard field goal.
Lassiter caught a 47-yard pass that moved BYU to the Utah 27, and Parker Kingston followed with a 25-yard touchdown reception on third and 8 to give the Cougars a 17-10 lead.
After a three and out for Utah, Retzlaff hit Chase Roberts for a 60-yard touchdown pass to make it a two-score game.
Another three and out gave BYU the chance to add to its lead heading into the fourth quarter, and the Cougars struck again.
Kingston snagged a 41-yard catch on third down to move the ball to the Utah 41, then he scored on a 41-yard touchdown grab to make it 31-10 with 11:20 to play, seemingly putting the outcome to rest.
Utah even struggled a bit on its next drive to move the ball, before Rose hit Singer for a 53-yard touchdown pass with 9:12 to play.
That set up the aforementioned back-to-back Retzlaff turnovers that gave Utah two touchdowns and tied the game with 5:10 remaining.
Utah’s defense stood tall again, as Connor O’Toole sacked Retzlaff for a 14-yard loss to the BYU 1 that forced a punt. After a 15-yard punt return, the Utes started their ensuing drive at the BYU 37 and quickly scored.
Micah Bernard ripped off an 18-yard run to the 11, then Jaylon Glover scored on a 6-yard run with 2:13 to play, giving Utah a 38-31 lead on 28 unanswered points — reminiscent of the last time BYU and Utah played at Rice-Eccles, when the Utes rallied from a 27-7 deficit to win 35-27.
The Cougars weren’t done, though, as Retzlaff hit Kingston for a 36-yard pass, then found Lassiter wide open for a 15-yard touchdown with 1:20 to play, tying the game at 38-38. That drive covered 84 yards in just five plays and took 47 seconds.
Utah, though, was left with too much time to operate.
Rose completed passes of 20 and 24 yards to Brant Kuithe and Singer, respectively, to get the Utes into field goal territory, and Bernard moved Utah further downfield before Becker lined up for a 38-yard field goal on the game’s final play.
Becker nailed the game-winner straight down the middle, giving the Utes the upset in a wild fourth quarter that featured 45 points.
Star players: Rose was efficient in his first start, completing 24 of 30 passes for 309 yards and three touchdowns. His favorite target was Singer, who had five catches for 106 yards and a touchdown.
Bernard added 181 yards on the ground, as Utah outran the Cougars 170 yards to 7.
Defensively, Snowden had an all-around great effort with seven tackles, one tackle for loss, a fumble recovery and the pick-six.
Retzlaff channeled his inner Ty Detmer in this one, throwing for 535 yards and four touchdowns, though his two interceptions were huge.
Martin had a modest 44 rushing yards for BYU, though Retzlaff was sacked five times.
Kingston (218 receiving yards, two touchdowns), Lassiter (148, 1) and Roberts (104, 1) all went over 100 receiving yards and had a touchdown for BYU.
Key stats: The biggest determining factor was that Utah won the turnover battle 3-0 and turned every one of those takeaways into a touchdown.
BYU ended up with more total yards, at 542 to 479, but the Utes were 10 of 19 on third down, while the Cougars were 5 of 12.
My analysis: Well, the margin of victory is definitely something that could happen — the history of this rivalry is filled with games that have gone down to the wire.
The simulation, though, was much, much more high-scoring than I would dare to anticipate in this one, even if both offenses threw a boatload of trick plays into the works.
Both offenses were most certainly too efficient in this simulation, especially in the second half — both the Utes and Cougars have much better defenses than the video game gave them credit for.
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